Prediction Predicament

Imagine there’s a filter between each of us and our life experiences, allowing in some details and blocking out others. We believe we’re encountering the world directly, as it truly is, but in fact, our brains always run prediction programs that screen inputs, noticing what fits the belief and disregarding what doesn’t. As a result, we experience what we expect to experience, for better and for worse.

For example, new brain research shows that trauma locks-in a threat filter, causing people with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) to re-experience terrifying ordeals, triggered by similar but innocuous sensory cues. When a gun-shot survivor dives for cover, reacting to a champagne cork popping at a wedding, a filter anticipating constant danger has screened out the warmth and safety of the family gathering.

People with PTSD fight, flee, freeze and fawn long after the traumatic event, because their brains’ prediction systems conclude the threat is happening right now. They are reliving—not remembering. Brain scans show that the traumatized brain has a disrupted connection between the survival brain (brainstem and cerebellum) and the reflective brain (cortex). The survival brain loops in the experience of threat, reinforcing old predictions, and new information about safety in the moment is ignored. The most effective trauma treatments—such as the powerful new method I’m using, Multichannel Eye Movement Integration, MEMI—use sensory grounding to calm the survival brain so that new information is allowed to disarm the trauma filter.

While trauma creates the stickiest prediction predicaments, all of us are subject to our forecasting brains which usually operate outside of our conscious awareness. Given this, let’s be purposeful about where we point our attention.

For example, when we start a new year by proclaiming an orienting theme or by making a vision board, we’re intentionally designing a filter. This isn’t about mystical manifesting or simple positive thinking. This kind of orienting cue taps the brain’s Reticular Activating System (RAS). My favorite description of the RAS is that it’s like a pack of rescue dogs. When a search team looks for a lost hiker, before the hounds are released into the woods, they’re oriented to the scent of the hiker’s cast-off garment so they home in on the specific person being sought. Similarly, by giving our RAS a vision board or mantra, we orient our attention to search our lives for cues and pathways to our best intentions.

For instance, if your vision board focuses on finding a more inspiring professional calling, then the RAS will disregard further steps on your usual work path but will perk up when someone mentions a meaningful volunteer opportunity. With that inner nudge, you’ll be more likely to jump in to help and in doing so, you’ll learn more about potential new jobs and meet people in this purposeful line of work. In this case, the filter is positive, orienting you towards the life you’re seeking.

The brain’s prediction systems create self-fulfilling prophecies. Knowing this invites us to pause before an experience and notice what we’re telling ourselves will happen, recognizing that this forecast will co-create our experience. If we like what we’re anticipating, then green light—proceed. If not, let’s loosen the grip of that negative prediction by imagining neutral to positive possibilities. Since our expectations will shape our experience, let’s aim where we want to go, on purpose.

Photo credit: Tom Podmore

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